IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed that present trends in air transport suggest passenger numbers could double to 8.2 billion in 2037.

 

The latest update to IATA’s “20-Year Air Passenger Forecast“, shows that an increasing shift Eastwards in the center of gravity of the industry is behind the continued strong growth. Over the next two decades, the forecast anticipates a 3.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), leading to a doubling in passenger numbers from today’s levels.

The Association warned, however, that growth prospects for air transport, and the economic benefits driven by aviation, could be curtailed if protectionist measures are implemented by governments.

 

 

 

The 3.5% CAGR to 2037 assumes an unchanged policy framework over that period. Policy shifts, however, are likely over time. Should protectionism continue to expand in a "reverse globalization" scenario, aviation would continue to grow, but at a slower pace and deliver fewer economic and social benefits. Under a liberalized environment connectivity would generate significantly more jobs and GDP growth.

 

"Global prosperity depends on air connectivity. Aviation is sensitive to policies that either support or undermine growth. And these seem to be pointing in the wrong direction. Dampening demand for air connectivity risks high quality jobs, and economic activity dependent on global mobility. This forecast is a cautionary warning to governments. First, the industry will grow but they must clear the infrastructure bottlenecks to bring that growth to their home markets. And secondly, governments must understand that globalization has made our world more socially and economically prosperous. Inhibiting globalization with protectionism will see opportunities lost," said de Juniac.

 

 

No matter which growth scenario comes to pass, aviation faces an infrastructure crisis. Governments must work closely with the industry, to be more ambitious in developing efficient infrastructure, fit for purpose, and offering value for money.

 

"The world stands to benefit greatly from better connectivity. However, at this rate, airports and air traffic control will not be able to handle demand. Governments and infrastructure operators must strategically plan for the future. Decisions made now will have an impact on the value created by aviation for their regions," said de Juniac.

 

The increased demand to fly creates a responsibility to expand in a sustainable manner. The aviation industry remains committed to its goals of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards and cutting CO2 emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. "Commercial aviation is one of the only global industries to take on such comprehensive environmental targets. With mandatory emissions reporting beginning on 1 January 2019 under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), this will help rally the industry to invest in more fuel efficient aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels," said de Juniac.    

 

Fastest growing aviation markets in terms of annual additional O-D passengers from 2017 to 2037 (constant policies scenario):

 

 

• China: 1 billion new passengers for a total of 1.6 billion

 

 

• US: 481 million new passengers for a total of 1.3 billion

 

 

Country and regional passenger figures are calculated on the basis of origin-destination (O-D) journeys. The 8.2 billion total passenger figure based on current policies is calculated on the basis of Origin-Destination plus connecting passengers. Based on Origin-Destination passengers only, the 2037 constant policies total passenger figure is 7.0 billion. For more information: IATA.